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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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We’ve already gotten money on the Bills against the Chargers, and of course the fact the Chargers lost to the Raiders yesterday (Sept. 20) 26-14 doesn’t help matters for people wanting to bet against the Bills,” Scucci explained. “So that’s all the more reason why we are seeing the money on the Bills. They’re going to be betting against the Dolphins every week, too.”
Like other sportsbooks in Las Vegas, Boyd Gaming is taking on significant liability on the Las Vegas Raiders, coming off their big win in Los Angeles to go 2-0 on the season.
“I think the Raiders are probably overachieving and giving more than what most people expected,” the Boyd Gaming VP said. “There’s a lot of sentimental support in Las Vegas. They’re clearly our biggest liability on the futures-bet market to win the Super Bowl. People bet them at long odds for that. The first game (27-13 over Miami), people didn’t hold that into much account because it was the Dolphins, the worst team in the NFL. But still, they played pretty well.”
