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It was found that “this group then self-reported significantly lower expenditure and harms [ … ] over the next two weeks”.  

They recommended banning direct marketing by operators and affiliates except for essential account or safety communications.

The committee also suggested a ban on inducements (free bets, sign-up bonuses) as these promotions stimulate betting activity and recruit new or lapsed customers.

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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.

Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

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Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.

“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”

This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.