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A lot of bigger questions remain without the CLARITY Act. The bill aimed to establish a federal framework for digital commodities and delineate the roles of the SEC and the CFTC.
Its failure also leaves unresolved disputes over prediction markets and state and tribal gaming authorities, outside a comprehensive congressional framework. Those issues took on new significance during Senate floor debate over the bill, as concerns about federal commodities oversight extended to markets typically regulated at the state or tribal level.
The latest filing is an early step in filling some of that regulatory gap for the CFTC. The agency can issue regulations under its current statutory authority, but those regulations would not necessarily be as permanent as legislation passed by Congress.
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In one of his Instagram stories, speaking directly to the camera, Pedro (a fictitious name for a “professional gambler”) shares a “unique opportunity”. He says that he is going to release a “super promotion for a premium group, which has higher odds”.
The normal price for access to the Telegram group would be BRL397 ($77.18) per month. But, exclusively on that day, he would release both groups together for “only BRL14.91 per month on the annual plan”. This group is the main product sold by Pedro, where he publishes sports predictions, tips on betting operators and higher-value betting odds.
The problem is that many of these recommendations involve companies that are not authorised to operate in Brazil. Some may be licensed in other countries, but that doesn’t allow them to operate legally in the Brazilian market.
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Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.
“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.