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How to play Piggy Riches
Papanier said the components of Bally’s Chicago that are being “reset and re-contemplated” are “all in conjunction with the proliferation of VGTs”. While the current number of licences is low, he asserted that widespread proliferation could result in a “30% to 50% impact on top-line revenue” for the casino and it would be “irresponsible” to continue construction “until we understand what the landscape looks like”.
Bally’s stock jumped 7% in trading on Monday to $9.84. Shares had fallen 30% in the last month in response to uncertainty in Chicago and warnings about the company’s ability to continue as a growing concern in its Q2 earnings report. Former CFO Mira Mircheva resigned on 4 September, prompting Papanier to take over the role on an interim basis.
The VGT dispute and construction reset are the latest chapters in a long and bumpy road for Bally’s since winning Chicago’s sole casino licence in 2022. Work has been halted for debris overflow and for unapproved contractors, and the company faced an $800 million funding gap that was eventually filled through a financing agreement with Gaming and Leisure Properties. Potential interference with city water lines also necessitated a significant redesign of the hotel plan.
How to play Piggy Riches
“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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Spectrum Gaming Group’s 2022 report, which sits at the heart of the long-running dispute between the major games suppliers, has been unsealed as part of Evolution’s legal case against Black Cube.
Black Cube, an intelligence firm hired by Playtech in 2020 to look into alleged illegal behaviour at its rival Evolution, released a divisive report into Evolution’s actions. Evolution denied and refuted much of its findings.
Evolution then commissioned Spectrum Gaming Group to produce a report on its actions and the validity of the Black Cube report. Produced in 2022, the report has long been subject to confidentiality despite Evolution claiming the report exonerated the company.
