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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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Notably, Spectrum said within its report that it did not believe Evolution had engaged in any illegal practices. It also refuted allegations concerning cash payments and the use of Evolution’s games in sanctioned countries.
However, Playtech suggested that Evolution had failed to provide data that would have let Spectrum determine whether gaming sessions had occurred in Iran, Syria and Sudan.
It also said Spectrum was able to “specifically corroborate” Black Cube’s claims that Evolution’s games were accessible and generating revenue in several “prohibited locations”. These included Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
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Online gambling participation over four weeks reached 39% (16% excluding lottery-only players), while in-person gambling participation was 29% (18% excluding lottery-only players).
Top non-lottery activities during the period included scratchcards (13%), betting (10%) and online instant win games (8%).
Betting skewed male, with 16% of men gambling on betting compared to 4% of women. Age-wise, overall gambling participation peaked among 45- to 64-year-olds (56%-59%), when excluding lotteries the highest participation was among 35- to 44-year-olds (35%).