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What is Circus Brilliant?
A contract purchased on Kalshi cannot simply be transferred and sold on Polymarket, even where the two markets appear to cover the same outcome. Each exchange may also define and resolve its contracts differently, creating an additional risk for firms trading across venues.
Liquidity can consequently become self-reinforcing. Market makers gravitate towards platforms offering dependable technology and substantial order flow, while their participation improves pricing and execution for consumers.
Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.
What is Circus Brilliant?
Now, the focus is on what the company does with the additional capacity AI has created. Six months ago, Cubeia’s experiment was essentially about replacing human-written code with AI-generated code.
Since then, it has evolved into something broader: a different development pipeline, a different role for developers and quality assurance (QA), a different way of organising teams and, increasingly, a different relationship with customers.
Cubeia’s first phase was an open approach to AI. Developers could use it whenever they wanted. Phase two brought structure, with everyone using the same agents and working through the same AI-driven pipeline. That required Cubeia to solve questions around quality, reliability and how agents could work together, while getting employees comfortable with the new way of working. Grenstad believes that work has largely been completed.
How to play Circus Brilliant
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
